PYRAMID INDEX

Prediction accuracy

Every prediction is frozen on game day, before kickoff, and scored against the result. Nothing gets deleted after the fact.

Live predictions

47%

of 835 games: the most likely outcome (win/draw/loss) happened

Brier score 0.662 (lower is better; always guessing 1/3 each scores 0.667) · log loss 1.106 · mean error in goal margin 1.82

Published on the site since launch

Backtest

53%

of 1,597 games: the most likely outcome (win/draw/loss) happened

Brier score 0.584 (lower is better; always guessing 1/3 each scores 0.667) · log loss 0.981 · mean error in goal margin 1.75

Model fit on games before 1 July 2026, scored on the 1,597 games after

Calibration

When the model gives its pick a certain chance, does it happen that often?

Model's confidence in its pickGamesPredictedActual
30–40%3940%49%
40–50%83045%40%
50–60%60055%48%
60–70%41364%57%
70–80%29975%65%
80–90%17885%70%
90–100%7394%75%

Latest scored predictions

DateGameHome / Draw / AwayResult
Nov 10Florida Premier FC vs Florida Celtic SC 87% / 8% / 5%0–0 ✗
Nov 10Future FC vs Utah Rangers FC 34% / 21% / 45%0–0 ✗
Nov 10FC Miami City (UPSL) vs Plantation FC 21% / 18% / 61%2–2 ✗
Nov 8Stellar FC vs Merit SC 89% / 7% / 4%3–1 ✓
Nov 8Henderson Cavalry FC vs NTX Lions 10% / 13% / 77%0–3 ✓
Nov 8Uptown United vs Nola Wolves FC 46% / 21% / 34%0–0 ✗
Nov 8Reapers FC vs Club Atletico Omaha 22% / 19% / 59%3–4 ✓
Nov 8Bright Stars Soccer vs Victoria Azteca SC 14% / 15% / 71%0–0 ✗
Nov 8Arsenal Futbol Club vs Forza Laredos 69% / 16% / 15%0–0 ✗
Nov 8San Diego Internacional FC vs Nomads SC 53% / 20% / 27%2–2 ✗
Nov 8Pre-College DA vs Mint Hill FC 30% / 20% / 50%2–4 ✓
Nov 8Next Level Soccer Premier vs RSL Arizona 75% / 14% / 11%0–0 ✗
Nov 8Katy Jaguars FC vs Lightning Elite FC 58% / 19% / 24%0–0 ✗
Nov 8FC Tampa Rangers vs PCU Pelicans SC 17% / 17% / 67%0–1 ✓
Nov 8Florida Elite FC ESP vs Miami FC U20 28% / 20% / 52%2–3 ✓
Nov 8Chicago Nation FC vs Chicago Strikers 77% / 13% / 10%6–0 ✓
Nov 8Virginia Dream FC (UPSL) vs DC Hyper 61% / 18% / 21%0–4 ✗
Nov 8Grove United (UPSL) vs Northern Virginia United 51% / 20% / 29%2–1 ✓
Nov 8Cyclones FC vs Empire SC 62% / 18% / 20%0–0 ✗
Nov 8Diversity United FC vs 1859 FC 6% / 9% / 84%1–4 ✓
Nov 8Viva CV vs Eagles FC 85% / 9% / 6%6–3 ✓
Nov 8Sammamish FC vs Bellevue Athletic 4% / 7% / 90%0–8 ✓
Nov 8Capital City Roots FC vs Heartland United FC 75% / 14% / 11%5–1 ✓
Nov 8Quickplay FC vs Alpha Futbol USA 9% / 12% / 79%0–0 ✗
Nov 8Pali FC vs NOLA Athletic FC 13% / 15% / 73%2–0 ✗
Nov 8Long Beach FC vs Laguna United FC 58% / 19% / 23%5–1 ✓
Nov 8Thurston County SA vs Strangers United FC 12% / 14% / 74%0–0 ✗
Nov 8Cleveland United FC vs Chattanooga Kaistorms FC 28% / 20% / 52%0–2 ✓
Nov 8Emory FC vs Tar Devils SC 44% / 21% / 35%1–3 ✗
Nov 8Utah Athletic vs Provo Utah FC 25% / 19% / 55%2–3 ✓
Nov 8FC Bandera vs Real San Juan SC 2% / 5% / 92%1–14 ✓
Nov 8Gastonia City FC vs Briar United FC 60% / 18% / 22%3–1 ✓
Nov 8Brevard SC (UPSL) vs Kissimmee SC 10% / 13% / 77%1–8 ✓
Nov 8Atletico Dallas II vs Resolute Soccer 96% / 3% / 1%11–0 ✓
Nov 8Stetson FA vs Jax United FC 39% / 21% / 40%1–5 ✓
Nov 8Las Vegas Football Institute vs Premier FC 33% / 21% / 46%4–2 ✗
Nov 8Central Valley Premier FC vs Reno FC 83% / 10% / 7%2–1 ✓
Nov 8Cosmos B vs New Jersey Alliance FC 52% / 20% / 28%2–2 ✗
Nov 8Drita SC (UPSL) vs Detroit Metro FC 44% / 21% / 36%3–1 ✓
Nov 8Texas Spurs FC vs TenFifteen FC 43% / 21% / 36%3–0 ✓
Nov 8ATX Blues vs Central Texas Coyotes FC (UPSL) 54% / 20% / 27%0–0 ✗
Nov 8Indy Gladiators SC vs Southern Indiana Guardians FC 68% / 16% / 16%2–2 ✗
Nov 8Aurora FC vs Houston Dutch Lions FC 69% / 16% / 15%0–0 ✗
Nov 8SA City SC vs SA Athletic FC 50% / 20% / 30%0–0 ✗
Nov 8State 48 Sporting FC vs Arizona Arsenal SC 66% / 17% / 17%0–0 ✗
Nov 7SCU Heat vs Gastonia FC Strikers 88% / 8% / 4%4–4 ✗
Nov 788Thirty vs Santa Ana Winds FC 16% / 16% / 68%1–10 ✓
Nov 7Sanford Area Soccer League vs South Carolina Surf 1% / 2% / 97%0–5 ✓
Nov 7Capitol City Futbol Club vs Central Valley Premier FC 3% / 5% / 92%0–0 ✗
Nov 7Apple Valley Storm vs Montclair Academy FC 7% / 10% / 83%0–0 ✗